Rester, Lena (2022) Compound Hot and Dry Extreme Climate Events in Brazil’s Breadbasket Region for Soybeans - Recent Trends and Future Predictions. Bachelor thesis, Global Responsibility & Leadership (GRL).
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Abstract
Progress in achieving global food security is slow and climate change contributes as a risk factor, making farming more difficult and increasing yield losses. Brazil, the largest producer of soybeans, has increasingly felt the negative effects of heat and drought. By analyzing climate trends and identifying areas prone to climate extremes, agricultural planning and production can potentially be improved, increasing food security. Therefore, this paper analyzes the change in the frequency of occurrence of compound hot and dry events (CHDE) in Brazil between the two periods 1981-2010 and 2035-2064. Additionally, this study investigates the individual contributions of heatwaves and droughts to the occurrence of CHDE and assesses whether the CHDE will potentially impact soybean production. The CHDE are modeled using 3 Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway scenario 245. The model predictions imply that there will be an increase in CHDE which is mainly caused by an increasing number of heatwaves, rather than a change in intensity and duration of droughts. Additionally, the study found that the CHDE will occur in areas of soybean plantations at a magnitude that could potentially cause crop losses. The findings of this study motivate further research to quantify the CHDE’s effects on Brazil’s soybean production and highlight the importance of research for adaptive soybean production in Brazil creating resilience to CHDE.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
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| Name supervisor: | Feron, S.C. |
| Date Deposited: | 09 Sep 2022 14:17 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Sep 2022 14:17 |
| URI: | https://campus-fryslan.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/119 |
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