Heer, Ditmer (2026) Explaining Polling Error, the Role of Media Attention in the Dutch Parliamentary Elections of 2025. Bachelor thesis, Data Science and Society (DSS).
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Abstract
This study examined the extent to which poll deviation can be explained by news media attention in the weeks preceding the 2025 Dutch parliamentary elections. Previous research has identified links between media attention, polls and election results, but these variables are often difficult to operationalize due to their interdependencies. News media attention in this thesis was operationalized as (1) the number of articles in which a party was mentioned and (2) article sentiment, so how positive or negative the article was. A total of 1107 news articles were collected from Dutch news outlets using Lexis Nexis, and two different polling dates from the Peilingwijzer were compared with the final election results. The results show that the number of mentions was strongly correlated with both poll deviation and election results. Sentiment was not significantly correlated with either poll deviation or election outcomes. It is concluded that news outlets have a responsibility in knowing that news articles can have this influence on elections.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
|---|---|
| Name supervisor: | Bouman, L. |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Jun 2026 09:17 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Jun 2026 09:17 |
| URI: | https://campus-fryslan.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/785 |
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