Wang, An Qi (2025) Climate Variability and Conflicts: The Number Conflicts in the Horn of Africa significantly correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Bachelor thesis, Global Responsibility & Leadership (GRL).
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Abstract
The Horn of Africa (HOA) – comprising Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and Kenya – is an environmentally vulnerable and geostrategic region, characterized by ethnic diversity and recurring inter- and intrastate conflicts. According to Thomas Homer-Dixon’s Environmental Scarcity Theory, such conflicts may be driven by environmental stressors like droughts, which exacerbate resource scarcity and social tensions. Historic droughts in HOA have partially linked to La Niña events. El Niño and La Niña are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural fluctuation in SST(s) in the tropical Pacific Ocean’s Nino 3.4 region. During La Niña events, SSTs are below average, while El Niño events are associated with above average SSTs. By analyzing SST data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and conflict data from the UPPSALA Conflict Data Program (UCDP) over the last two decades, this thesis found a statistically significant negative correlation (p-value < 0.05) between SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region and the number of conflicts in the HOA. In other words, it was found that conflicts on HOA tend to be more frequent during periods of relatively low SSTs (i.e., during La Niña events). This finding lends support to Homer-Dixon’s theory, suggesting in particular that La Niña can be considered a risk factor for conflict in HOA. Future research could investigate other regions highly sensitive to ENSO-related climate variability, such as Chile or China, to further examine the relationship between climate and conflict.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
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| Name supervisor: | Cordero Carrasco, R.R. |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Jul 2025 06:30 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Jul 2025 06:30 |
| URI: | https://campus-fryslan.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/731 |
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